TRU Supply-demand forecast Lithium 2020
8th Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Las Vegas May 24, 2016 + AnnouncementsLithium Supply Producers Competition Lithium Markets Trends Outlook - Lithium Prices Lithium Experts Li Companies
Lithium Players "talking-up" lithium prices!
TRU Group Inc, update June 2016 preview - TRU predicts only modest upward change in lithium prices medium term. There has been a lithium price uptick through May (2016 ±US$5,800 t-Li-carb) due to the Tesla hype, predicted lithium junior lithium plant closures (discussed below) and the effects of the lithium big-three oligopolistic strategies. However, the effects are temporary and the lithium-players' recent success in the rampant "talking-up" of lithium prices will not work longer term as the fundamentals dictate otherwise says TRU!
Predictably: Lithium Prices Plateau, Mining Juniors Falter and Investors the Losers!
TRU says lithium space needs a major recharge! TRU Group Inc, release November 3, 2014 - Lithium engineering consultants TRU says that lithium prices in 2014 have performed close to our prediction of five years ago. TRU president Edward Anderson says “Latest Chile monthly export data shows lithium carbonate prices lower by 2.3% for the year at US$4,600 per t". Prices are kept in check by new supply from pipeline projects and plant expansions by the big-three low-cost lithium producers. Cont .
Considered Robust and Valid^ - IM Lithium Supply & Markets May 2014
^TRU Lithium Supply-Demand Forecast 2020 was first presented January 2009 in Santiago Chile. The forecast is based on TRU's own data and was for Mitsubishi Corporation: It required minor modification for 2011. The projections for the underlying forecast have proved reasonably robust although on the supply side most of the early players have gone to be replaced by new hustling juniors! The TRU lithium carbonate price projection made five years ago has proved accurate to ±10% through year 2016. Similarly the lithium batteries forecast for EV - which use cobalt, graphite and lithium has proved good - an issue currently in vogue due to the Tesla plan for a US giga battery plant (TRU comment).
TRU Group Inc - with well over 100 person-years of lithium chemical & geological experience - assists companies from exploration, through process engineering to lithium product design. For example, TRU technically assessed, chemically modeled and ranked 170 lithium salt lake salars and the 30 pipeline mineral-based lithium projects being promoted globally. In mid 2013 TRU is engaged in several brine, mineral based and oilfield brine feasibility / amenability studies. By 2011-2013 TRU had completed the first several feasibility studies for some of the most challenging lithium developments.
TRU Group Inc Lithium Engineers + Managers + Planners + Integrators
8th IM Lithium Supply & Markets 2016
Paris Las Vegas Hotel May 24-26, 2016 Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
TRU's Anderson is available for Private Consultations
Consult TRU on all battery materials and battery developments!
Edward R. Anderson, TRU Group Inc., President & CEO
B.Sc.(Hons)., Dpl.(Marketing Research)., MBA., FCIArb
International Mobile Cell USA: +1-520-229-7836
(Contact details above or use the conference messaging system please)
Balance progresses between brine & spodumene sources of lithium?• New supply in the next few years? • Ahead for the emerging players?• Can they meet or beat the oligopoly’s cost of production? • Potential risks of supply disruption from the Lithium Triangle of Argentina, Chile and Bolivia? • New from China’s lithium supply chain?• Ramp-ups of li-battery sectors to be watch – EVs
Wednesday May 25, 2016 Session I: Industry executive panel
Joe Lowry, President, Global Lithium LLC, USA / Luis Saenz, CEO, Li3 Energy Inc., Chile / Anthony Tse, Managing Director, Galaxy, Hong Kong
- 09:00 2016 and the affordable EV – have we reached a demand inflection point?
- 09:30 Balancing the unknown and unpredictable future demand
Session II: Regional supply update – legislative and fiscal challenges for suppliers
- 11:00 Chile’s debates over lithium production control and implications
- 11:30 Olaroz – ramp-up of its 17,000-tpy Argentina Plant? James Calaway, Orocobre Ltd, USA
- 12:00 Developments in China’s lithium industry - Nanping LI, General Lithium (Haimen), China
Session III: Breakthroughs and advances in lithium extraction technology
- 14:30 Comparative costs for lithium flowsheets – your key choice
Session IV: Automotive electrification – what it means for the global lithium industry?
- 16:00 Tesla’s mission – accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable transportation
- Exploring the new battery technology and their lithium strategy from leading automakers
- 12:00 Developments in China’s lithium industry - Nanping LI, General Lithium (Haimen), China
Thursday May 26, 2016 Session V: Project pipeline
- 09:00 The cutting edge – insights into market fundamentals, industry behaviors and pricing
- 9:30 Nemaska Lithium Inc., Guy Bourassa, President and CEO
- 10:00 New Lithium Supply from Mt Marion Mine, Michael Tamlin, COO, Neometals Ltd, Australia
- 10:30 Footprint of Eramet in the lithium world and Argentina Project, Antoine Gouze, Eramet Group, France
Session VI: Session VI: Li-ion battery in focus
- 11:30 Energy storage as another sector to fuel lithium-ion batteries development?
- 12:00 Ramp-ups of Lithium battery industry – production expansion and growth in consumer market sectors
l Aberdeen International l AGC Engineering l Anzaplan Asahi Kasei Corporation l lBora Bora Resources l Chengdu l CORFO l DRA l Eramet l FMC Lithium l Ganfeng l Japan Oil, Gas and Metals l Leverton Lithium Chemicals l Mitsui & Co., Ltd. l Nemaska Lithium Inc l Neogen Chemicals Ltd l Neometals Ltd l Orocobre Limited l Panasonic Procurement (Shanghai) l Pilbara Minerals Ltd l POSCO Research Institute l Qingdao QianYun High-Tech New Material Co Ltd l Qinghai CITIC Guoan Sci & Tech l Qinghai Institute of Salt Lakes l Rockwood Lithium (Shanghai) l Saft Batteries l Schott AG l Sichuan Guorun New Materials Co Ltd l SQM Beijing Commercial Co Ltd l Talison Lithium Limited lTenova Bateman Technologiesl The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company l Tianqi Lithium l Toyota Tsusho l Umicore Rechargeable Battery Materials l
Older TRU Group Inc Lithium Related Press Releases:
TRU lithium price outlook update – monthly data confirms TRU forecasts!
TRU Group Inc, release September 10, 2013 - Lithium consultants TRU says latest monthly data supports our long standing lithium price forecast. No modification is required. TRU president Edward Anderson says “Lithium prices have developed as earlier projected with lithium carbonate up only 4% over 2012 for an estimated average of $4,700 per t in 2013. This price level is the new norm and the price premium on battery over technical grade is narrowing as predicted.”
TRU Group Inc advises that the Dr Ihor A Kunasz paper recommending vital modifications to the 2012 CIM Lithium NI 43-101 Best Practice Guideline was published October 2013 in the Mining Engineering Magazine of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration SME in the United States. Kunasz received the 2013-14 SME Robert M Dreyer Award for his lithium work february 2014.
"TRU lithium 2020 outlook robust – Dreamliner battery overheating a wider challenge?"
TRU Group Inc, release summary January 21, 2013 - Lithium consultants TRU says that its lithium supply-demand outlook through 2020 is proving exceptionally robust. No fundamental modification to our January 2011 forecast is required. However, risk in the outlook has been heightened by the grounding of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner – an aircraft that uses li-ion batteries and lithium metal alloy. Battery and alloy use are drivers of market growth. TRU president Edward Anderson says “the cause of the battery overheating is unclear but there may be lessons to be learned on the wider commercial readiness of lithium battery system technology”. Lithium prices have developed as earlier predicted averaging US$4,400 per t Li-carbonate in 2012 only slightly higher than the previous year. TRU president Edward Anderson says “this price level could be the new norm for lithium carbonate: In addition the price premium on battery over technical grade will soon disappear.”
TRU advises that the Kunasz paper recommending vital required fundamental amendments to the CIM Lithium NI 43-101 Best Practice Guideline is uploaded for the IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Jan 29, 2013 Las Vegas NV USA. II Download full TRU release II Dr Ihor A Kunasz Ph.D. (Geology) is not Presenting -
BRINES RESOURCES AND RESERVES - Analysis of and Practical Recommendations for CIM’s Publication 'Best Practices for Resource and Reserve Estimation for Lithium Brines':
"New CIM NI 43-101 lithium reserve estimation guideline falls short - TRU will propose best practice corrections at the lithium conference in Las Vegas"
TRU Group Inc, Tucson AZ and Toronto ON November 26, 2012 - Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that the “Best Practice Guidelines” for Lithium Brine reserve estimation are deficient and could lead to substantial overestimation of lithium resources, if applied. The guidelines recommend a manner for estimating brine resources and reserves that would include both potential brine producing aquifers with extractable lithium along with associated low permeability sediments, which may contain brine that is not extractable by economic means. Such sediments should be excluded from any resource estimate. The “CIM Best Practice Guidelines for Resource and Reserve Estimation for Lithium Brines” was published November 1, 2012. The CIM guideline applies to NI 43-101 reporting on lithium projects. Ihor Kunasz Ph.D. (Geology) is well known as the geologist who developed the original reserve model for the very first lithium brine deposit at Silver Peak, NV and defined the lithium resources for the Salar de Atacama deposit from whence sixty per cent of the world’s lithium is currently produced. He developed the original resource & production feasibility study for the Chemetall-SCL-CORFO (Chilean Development Corp) JV. "New CIM NI 43-101 lithium reserve estimation guideline falls short"
Lithium Demand Recovers but Lithium Prices Stagnate year-end 2011
TRU Group Inc, Toronto ON, Tucson AZ, January 17, 2012 - Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says its lithium price forecast 2011 has been affirmed. On reviewing price trends TRU found that prices stagnated 2011 despite reasonable growth in global demand for lithium chemicals. In its January 2011 presentation president Edward R Anderson had said "Lithium carbonate prices came down to below $4500 per t in 2010 and in our forecast will remain around this level for some time". In fact the new data shows that the average price of lithium carbonate for 2011 was unchanged over 2010 at US$4,300 t and there was little sign of upward pressure entering 2012. Download full press statement
Basic lithium chemical prices are being kept in check mainly by over-supply – a situation which TRU says will be exacerbated through 2020 as a number of new pipeline projects come on stream and the existing dominating low cost South American producers SQM, FMC and Rockwood (Chemetall-SCL) expand. Mr Anderson said: "It is pretty difficult for any producer, large or small, to increase prices in the current or projected environment. Customers are clearly resisting price increases now and will likely continue to do so. Those producers attempting to raise prices risk losing customers to competitors". Now in January 2012 there is stronger evidence than ever that the lithium industry will experience stable prices long term.
"Lithium Pipeline Projects cannot beat the Existing Lithium Chemical Big Three"
TRU Group Inc, Tucson and Toronto January 17, 2011 -"Lithium Pipeline Projects cannot beat the Existing Lithium Chemical Big Three." Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that its updated lithium supply-demand forecast 2020 slideshow has been uploaded to its website trugroup.com. The outlook is shocking. The seemingly unstoppable supply growth will cause such huge overcapacity that the stability of the industry will be threatened. Pipeline projects and expansions could increase capacity by about 40,000 tpy Li-contained in the next decade – double what the industry needs. Existing lithium chemical producers have the in-ground resources and ability to meet nearly all market requirements by expanding capacity. On the lithium chemicals demand side there has been some recovery in 2010 from recent dramatic declines. Demand and prices will continue weak this year. TRU president Edward R Anderson will tell the IM Toronto 3rd Lithium Supply & Markets conference: "Lithium carbonate prices fell precipitately to $4500 per t in 2010 and will remain depressed. Long term there is no market-driven upward-price pressure so prices will remain stable and likely below $5000 per t". Lower prices and fierce competition through 2020 is bad news for the lithium new project promoters who will find it impossible to compete against the distinctive natural cost advantage of brine-based producers Chemetall-SCL, FMC and SQM. "Only a select few new projects could make it into profitable production and then only as marginal suppliers. Bottom line is if you do have a good resource make sure you also have the strongest possible lithium technical capability to develop it".
TRU's veteran lithium geologist Dr Ihor I. Kunasz, Ph.D. (Geol), P.Geol., is also presenting. He will explain the technical reasons as to why existing producers have a natural advantage. Ihor Kunasz says: "It's simple, the existing players have three times the lithium concentration and also reserves that dwarf any of the new players. In addition SQM by far the world's largest lithium supplier has for many years re-injected excess lithium produced into the Salar de Atacama adding to the lithium resource of the salar". Kunasz is well known as the geologist who developed the original reserve model at Atacama from whence 60% of the world's lithium is currently produced. He signed the original feasibility study for development of Salar Atacama Intimately involved in negotiating the feasibility document with Chilean governmental agencies.
TRU Group Inc, November 5, 2010 – TRU is to present a Lithium Industry Market Balance Update and Technical Paper at Toronto 2011 Conference. "Shocking Future Battering the Lithium Industry through 2020". Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that its updated lithium outlook for presentation for the IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Toronto 2011 will confirm that the industry suffered severely in the 2009-2010 recession with global demand falling in double-digit percentage terms, pushing prices lower too. Little in the long term, including new use from electric vehicles batteries, will counter the overall lower lithium chemical demand that is now expected. New production capacity coming on stream in the next five years plus advanced pipeline projects that will start-up later will exacerbate imbalance and threaten the stability of the industry. The combined structural effect of a downward shift in demand and idle excess capacity will be felt long term. "Competition through 2020 will be increasingly fierce making it virtually impossible for aspiring lithium businesses to ever turn a profit. Millions of dollars invested in these companies will be lost by unsuspecting investors" said TRU president Edward R Anderson. "Most troubling is that the stock market regulators in the United States and Canada have failed to take appropriate action to protect investors from predictable losses. The widespread misuse of the 43-101 reporting system and the authorship of these reports by so called "Qualified Persons" who are far from it, is worrisome! See TRU Lithium Investing and Misleading Documents
TRU's Dr Ihor I. Kunasz will be explaining some of the technical reasons for the industry's general naïveté. He is well known as the geologist who developed the reserve model at Salar de Atacama from whence sixty per cent of the world's lithium is currently produced. He also did this assessment for Silver Peak, NV and analyzed most of the competitive brine deposits in the world as Chief Geologist for Foote Mineral Company (now Metallic Foote Corporation). Since joining TRU he has reviewed the resources of most salars in the world that are of any merit. The title of his presentation will be "Lithium Brines – Extraction Technology vs. Pegmatite Mining"
TRU Group Inc, November 9, 2009 - Lithium chemical demand has been hit hard through third quarter 2009 and we envisage a full year decline exceeding 12% over 2008 and weakening lithium chemical prices. Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that there is no need therefore to update its well publicized January 2009 long range lithium outlook 2020 presented at the IM lithium conference. The next six months will be critical but a recovery is likely soon. The TRU distinctive forecast of lithium use in electric vehicles and lithium use in alloy is also proving correct. The TRU view that global lithium oversupply will persist at minimum through 2013 is affirmed. Output of lithium chemicals through expansion by existing brine-based producers - SQM, FMC, Chemetall and CITIC – and new development projects in the pipeline will assure sufficient lithium supply long range. Additional new medium range production will originate from mineral-based producers in China particularly and likely the Rincon Lithium (salar) of Argentina. We expect at least one new competitive brine producer to be in production within ten years.
Lithium Chemicals Price Trend: Dominating lithium producer SQM in September 2009 announced 20% price reductions. Lithium prices have been stagnant through 2009: Given market conditions falling prices were expected but they were superficially bolstered by the steep fall in the US dollar against lithium producer and user currencies. TRU president Edward R Anderson says "the SQM price reduction was a necessary correction and consistent with the TRU lithium over-supply scenario. Indeed, there is little prospect for price volatility even long range. Prevailing lithium carbonate contract transaction prices are much lower than stated by most new project promoters and several (misinformed) analysts. Any new producer must be prepared to meet these lower large volume prices. TRU projects an orderly and balanced development of the lithium industry through the 2020 horizon and this translates to price stability."
TRU Group Inc, January 22, 2009 - Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that its updated lithium outlook for presentation Tuesday at the IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Santiago 2009 will conclude that the industry is not immune from the global recession and will be pushed into oversupply this year through 2013. Global use of lithium will decline sharply by at least 6% in 2009 and demand is unlikely to bounce back any time soon as consumers put off buying laptops or cell phones containing lithium batteries. This is bad news for an industry accustomed to strong sustained growth over many years. TRU president Edward Anderson commented that "an outlook presentation of this type is very unusual for us because all of our work is client confidential. However, Mitsubishi Corporation who commissioned the original analysis has authorized TRU to release some of the material". The techno-economic analysis and supply-demand forecast is a major in-depth assignment conducted by the TRU Lithium Team made up of the world's top technical experts on lithium production and extraction on the supply side, as well as our specialized industry analysts on the demand side. Impacts of recent advances in lithium extraction technology (for example, in selective ion adsorption, electro dialysis, and filtration) are considered.
It is likely now that some expansions and new projects will be delayed or canceled until market conditions improve. The long range however remains bright because new and large uses for lithium will start having a major impact on demand within the five year horizon: Lithium use in electric vehicle batteries and lithium alloys for aircraft. TRU forecasts that demand will be strong and sustained in these two segments over the long term 2020. The industry does need at least one of the announced pipeline production projects to come into production and also could do with another new project as the market tightens around 2015-2017. New lithium producers still will need to be cost competitive with existing salt lake brine based producers in South America and China. Emerging technology may make some of the undeveloped medium sized (brine) lithium resources quite attractive. Certainly the industry through expansion and development of new resources will have no problem meeting demand.
TRU Group Inc based in Toronto, Canada and Tucson, USA are industrial management and engineering consultants with a strong capability in lithium project development. The firm is a world leader in resource evaluation, salar exploitation, brine & mineral lithium extraction and processing technologies - those in use, prospective, and leading edge. TRU Lithium Team has evaluated and modeled most of the known existing lithium properties and advised a number of players on a wide variety of lithium resource, engineering, process, business and investment issues.Past IM Industrial Minerals Lithium Conferences conferences:
• 2009, Toronto, 2010, supply, demand, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 IM Lithium Supply & Markets. Awaiting 8th IM Lithium Supply & Markets conference Las Vegas 2014 • 5th IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference 2013 Las Vegas, NV, USA • 4th IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina 2012 • 3rd IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Toronto 2011 • 2nd IM Lithium Supply & Markets September 2010 Asia Conference Seoul, South Korea • 1st IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Santiago 2009 I Lithium conferences, lithium news, lithium data, lithium statistics, lithium future, lithium forecast, TRU Group Inc,
Conference attendees 2015: Aberdeen International lAGC Engineering Co Ltd • Anzaplan lAsahi Kasei Corporation lAsia Lithium Corporation Beijing Chilith New Sources Co Ltd lBeijing Easpring Co Ltd • Beijing HRM International Commercial & Exhibition •Bora Bora Resources • Chengdu Chemphys Chemical Industry • China Energy Lithium • Chongqing Kunyu Lithium • Clariden Capital • CORFO lDRA • Eramet • FMC • FMC Corporation • FMC Lithium • Ganfeng Lithium Co Ltd • General Lithium • Honjo Chemical Corporation • Industrial Minerals • Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation • Johnson Matthey BM Ltd V • Kowa Company Ltd • Leverton Lithium Chemicals • LMC Auto lMinerals Resources Limited • Minmetals Salt Lake Co Ltd • Mitsui & Co., Ltd. lNemaska Lithium Inc lNeogen Chemicals Ltd lNeometals Ltd. lOrocobre Limited lPanasonic Procurement (Shanghai) Co., Ltd • Pilbara Minerals Ltd • POSCO Europe • POSCO Research Institute • Qingdao QianYun High-Tech New Material Co Ltd • Qinghai CITIC Guoan Sci & Tech Co Ltd • Qinghai Institute of Salt Lakes • Chinese Academy of Sciences lRare Earth Minerals PLC • Rockwood Lithium (Shanghai) Co.,Ltd. • Roskill Information Services • Saft • Saft Batteries • Schott AG • Shanghai Metaldeposit Int'l Trade • Shanghai ZDAN International • Sichuan Guorun New Materials • SQM Beijing Commercial Co • SQM Europe NV • Talison Lithium Limited • Tenova Bateman Technologies • The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company • Tianqi Lithium • Tibet Urban Development Investment • Toyota Tsusho Corporation • Umicore Rechargeable Battery Materials • US Geological Survey (USGS) • Veolia Water Solutions & Technologies