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TRU Long-range supply-demand forecast for global lithium 2020 :Slide Show below Presentation Lithium Supply & Markets IM Conference update 2011 Toronto Santiago 2009 Nevada Asia 2010 |
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TRU Group Inc update supply-demand forecast - global lithium industry conference - 2010 Nevada Asia Details |
View the TRU Conference Presentation here Ä
Engineering Production & Processing, Products and Markets
January 22, 2009 Press Release
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TRU Group Inc, November 12, 2009 – Lithium chemical demand has been hit hard through third quarter 2009 and we envisage a full year decline exceeding 12% over 2008 and weakening lithium chemical prices. Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that there is no need therefore to update its well publicized January 2009 long range lithium outlook 2020 presented at the IM lithium conference. The next six months will be critical but a recovery is likely soon. The TRU distinctive forecast of lithium use in electric vehicles and lithium use in alloy is also proving correct. The TRU view that global lithium oversupply will persist at minimum through 2013 is affirmed. Output of lithium chemicals through expansion by existing brine-based producers - SQM, FMC, Chemetall and CITIC – and new development projects in the pipeline will assure sufficient lithium supply long range. Additional new medium range production will originate from mineral-based producers in China particularly and likely the Rincon Lithium (salar) of Argentina. We expect at least one new competitive brine producer to be in production within ten years. Lithium Chemicals Price Trend: Dominating lithium producer SQM in September 2009 announced 20% price reductions. Lithium prices have been stagnant through 2009: Given market conditions falling prices were expected but they were superficially bolstered by the steep fall in the US dollar against lithium producer and user currencies. TRU president Edward R Anderson says “the SQM price reduction was a necessary correction and consistent with the TRU lithium over-supply scenario. Indeed, there is little prospect for price volatility even long range. Prevailing lithium carbonate contract transaction prices are much lower than stated by most new project promoters and several (misinformed) analysts. Any new producer must be prepared to meet these lower large volume prices. TRU projects an orderly and balanced development of the lithium industry through the 2020 horizon and this translates to price stability.” :more statements below © TRU assists companies from exploration, through process engineering to lithium product design. For example, TRU technically assessed, chemically modelled and ranked 170 lithium salt lake salars and the 30 pipeline mineral-based projects being promoted globally. In mid 2010 TRU is engaged in several brine, mineral based and oilfield brine feasibility / amenability studies. TRU president Edward R Anderson says “The barrier to development for most projects is inadequate use of qualified (certified bankable) lithium engineering expertise. Lithium process engineering \ geology is highly specialized and too many start-ups or juniors have no experience in chemical plant project development. Missteps and some engineering failures are inevitable. Misleading investor documents approved by (wrongfully described) "Qualified Persons" abound. Other new projects will prove unprofitable because their promoters underplay the competitiveness of the industry. Success of a lithium resource development requires solid state-of-the-art technology and the industry strategic smarts to compete”. :more TRU Lithium Team
: more on TRU Lithium Team Capability Professional + Independent + Bankable TRU Group Inc, January 22, 2009 - Lithium consultants TRU Group Inc says that its updated lithium outlook for presentation Tuesday at the IM Lithium Supply & Markets Conference Santiago 2009 will conclude that the industry is not immune from the global recession and will be pushed into oversupply this year through 2013. Global use of lithium will decline sharply by at least 6% in 2009 and demand is unlikely to bounce back any time soon as consumers put off buying laptops or cell phones containing lithium batteries. This is bad news for an industry accustomed to strong sustained growth over many years. TRU president Edward Anderson commented that “an outlook presentation of this type is very unusual for us because all of our work is client confidential. However, Mitsubishi Corporation who commissioned the original analysis has authorized TRU to release some of the material”. The techno-economic analysis and supply-demand forecast is a major in-depth assignment conducted by the TRU Lithium Team made up of the world’s top technical experts on lithium production and extraction on the supply side, as well as our specialized industry analysts on the demand side. Impacts of recent advances in lithium extraction technology (for example, in selective ion adsorption, electrodialysis, and nanofiltration) are considered. It is likely now that some expansions and new projects will be delayed or cancelled until market conditions improve. The long range however remains bright because new and large uses for lithium will start having a major impact on demand within the five year horizon: Lithium use in electric vehicle batteries and lithium alloys for aircraft. TRU forecasts that demand will be strong and sustained in these two segments over the long term 2020. The industry does need at least one of the announced pipeline production projects to come into production and also could do with another new project as the market tightens around 2015-2017. New lithium producers still will need to be cost competitive with existing salt lake brine based producers in South America and China. Emerging technology may make some of the undeveloped medium sized (brine) lithium resources quite attractive. Certainly the industry through expansion and development of new resources will have no problem meeting demand. TRU Group Inc based in Toronto, Canada and Tucson, USA are industrial management and engineering consultants with a strong capability in lithium project development. The firm is a world leader in resource evaluation, salar exploitation, brine & mineral lithium extraction and processing technologies - those in use, prospective, and leading edge. TRU Lithium Team has evaluated and modeled most of the known existing lithium properties and advised a number of players on a wide variety of lithium resource, engineering, process, business and investment issues. Tucson Arizona USA + Toronto Canada + Mexico Working throughout North America and Internationally |
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Lithium Asia Las Vegas NV USA Lithium Supply & Markets 2010 Conference
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TRU Group Inc will be at - LITHIUM SUPPLY & MARKETS JAN 2011 INDUSTRIAL MINERALS CONFERENCE TORONTO CANADA
LITHIUM ASIA SUPPLY & MARKETS 2010 INDUSTRIAL MINERALS CONFERENCE INFORMATION
Lithium Supply & Markets September 2010 Asia Conference Date: 08 September 2010 - 09 September 2010 Venue: Date: 08 Sep 10 - 09 Sep 10 Venue: Renaissance Hotel Seoul, Seoul, South Korea
Lithium Asia is an exciting new event designed in response to delegate feedback. Taking place in South Korea it will focus on Lithium demand, looking at all the possible areas of growth, including ceramics, glass, electric car batteries, large format grid storage batteries and consumer electronics. There will also be a mining showcase to highlight new producers and interesting debate from analysts about likely demand projections and hard rock or brine. Asia is driving the electric vehicle revolution with Japan’s Toyota the world’s No.1 auto maker and China the biggest producing country, any global shift to electric vehicles is set to come from the East. Key speakers include: •KC Lim, Chief Technology Officer, Valence Technology, China •Kazuhiro Konba, Automotive Energy Supply Corporation, Japan •Lucie Bednarova, Research & Development, General Motors, USA •Iggy Tan, CEO, Galaxy Resources, Australia •Patrick Highsmith, CEO, Lithium One, USA •Xiaoshen Wang, Managing Director, Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd, China •Jonathan Buick, President & Managing Partner, Harp Capital, Canada •Jon Hykaway, Clean Technologies & Materials Analyst, Byron Capital Markets, Canada Key topics to be discussed at Lithium Asia: •Key demand drivers, including Japan, China and Korea's Li-ion battery industries •Off-take agreements and joint venture partnerships with the West •Strategic importance of lithium supply on the continent: how much will Asia need to import? Introduction In Chile in 2009, IM’s inaugural Lithium Supply & Markets (LSM09) set out explore whether or not there is enough lithium in the world to supply the pending boom from the electric and hybrid car battery markets. With the unprecedented rate of development from the upstream exploration and mining sector and lithium’s end user markets, Lithium Supply & Markets 2010 (LSM10) conference aims to build on the platform created by LSM09 and discuss the following topics: Validity of the most promising emerging lithium supply projects including Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, hectorite clay in Nevada and geothermal sources California
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